Mega Evolution
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Pokémon Mega Evolution Elite Trainer Boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models booster slot composition, rarity-weighted pull assumptions, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Promos, energy/token inserts, and Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are not included in this calculation.
Each ETB is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured rarity and premium-slot assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Mega Evolution is themed around powerful returning Mega forms and premium rarity chase cards, with pull structures tuned to reflect the set's collector-forward identity.
Mega Evolution pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable pack model. Community pull-rate references are listed below for context and validated against the TCGplayer Mega Evolution pull-rate article. Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) cards are intentionally excluded from EV totals in this tool.
Simulation order: card contents are drawn first, then optional Sift filtering is applied to the drawn pulls.
| Rarity | Article range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Mega EX / Double Rare | ~20.9% (~1 in 5 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade default = 20.9% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~10.9% (~1 in 9 packs) | Modeled via premium slot mix + row pools |
| Full Art Pokémon/Trainers | ~1 in 12 to 27 packs | Foil Rare+Epic default = 5.0% (~1 in 20) |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 78–100 packs | Showcase default = 1 in 89 packs |
| Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) | ~1 in 1,260 packs | Excluded from EV model |
Validation target source: TCGplayer — Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates. Defaults are tuned to this range and can be adjusted if market behavior shifts.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ETB EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | ETBs / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||