Scarlet & Violet—Paldean Fates
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator
Estimate the expected value (EV) of Paldean Fates elite trainer boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models the Paldean Fates English pull structure with a rare slot, two reverse holo slots, first-slot shiny upgrades, and premium second-slot upgrades to produce realistic EV and variance projections.
Basic Energy, code cards, the Shiny Mimikyu promo, and ETB accessories are not included in this calculation.
Each sealed product is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured Paldean Fates pull-rate assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.
Set theme: Paldean Fates is built around a huge shiny sheet, including Baby Shinies, shiny Pokémon ex full arts, Mew ex, Charizard ex, Gardevoir ex, full-art Supporters, and shiny-focused secret rare chases.
Paldean Fates pull-rate context (community estimates)
This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Paldean Fates pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to English Paldean Fates pull-rate data. Shiny Rare and Shiny Ultra Rare hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot. Full-art Supporters are modeled in the regular rare slot.
| Rarity / slot | Article / community range | Model default |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 15.89% (~1 in 6 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 15.89% |
| Ultra Rare (Full Art Trainer) | 6.61% (~1 in 15 packs) | Rare-slot upgrade = 6.61% |
| Shiny Rare | 25.44% (~1 in 4 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 25.44% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare | 7.72% (~1 in 13 packs) | First reverse-slot upgrade = 7.72% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.22% (~1 in 14 packs) | Second reverse-slot upgrade = 7.22% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.72% (~1 in 58 packs) | Second reverse-slot upgrade = 1.72% |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | 1.61% (~1 in 62 packs) | Second reverse-slot upgrade = 1.61% |
Validation targets: TCGplayer’s English Paldean Fates pull-rate data, the uploaded Paldean Fates card list, and published slot-seeding notes for the set’s shiny-first reverse slot and premium second reverse slot.
Included pools ▶
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Pack & Box EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Box EV × 9 (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break‑even price/box (mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All boxes | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| ROI vs cost | — | — | — |
Simulation Results (after Sift)
| Name | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Boxes / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift | 0.00 | |||||