Scarlet & Violet—Shrouded Fable
Elite Trainer Box EV calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Shrouded Fable elite trainer boxes using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models the Shrouded Fable English pull structure with standard slots, rare-slot upgrades, a first reverse slot that can upgrade into ACE SPEC, and premium bonus-slot upgrades to produce realistic EV and variance projections.

Basic Energy, code cards, the Pecharunt promo, and ETB accessories are not included in this calculation.

Each sealed product is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured Shrouded Fable pull-rate assumptions shown on the page. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Shrouded Fable centers on Pecharunt ex and the Loyal Three—Okidogi ex, Munkidori ex, and Fezandipiti ex—while Kingdra ex, Revavroom ex, ACE SPEC cards, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Hyper Rare chase cards round out the set.

9 packs / box Model defaults tuned to community Shrouded Fable pull-rate data Base slots: 4 Common • 3 Uncommon • 1 Rare-or-better Reverse slots: 1 reverse slot with ACE SPEC upgrades + 1 bonus slot with IR / SIR / Hyper Rare upgrades Official numbering follows the uploaded Shrouded Fable card list Live singles pricing from TCGCSV / TCGplayer

Shrouded Fable pull-rate context (community estimates)

This calculator uses live pricing with a configurable Shrouded Fable pack model. Published pull-rate references are listed below for context and tuned to community Shrouded Fable pull-rate data. ACE SPEC hits are modeled as upgrades to the first reverse holo slot, while Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Hyper Rare hits are handled as upgrades to the second reverse/premium slot.

Rarity / slotArticle / community rangeModel default
Double Rare16.70% (~1 in 6 packs)Rare-slot upgrade = 16.70%
Ultra Rare6.50% (~1 in 15 packs)Rare-slot upgrade = 6.50%
ACE SPEC Rare5.00% (~1 in 20 packs)First reverse-slot upgrade = 5.00%
Illustration Rare (IR)8.50% (~1 in 12 packs)Bonus-slot upgrade = 8.50%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR)1.50% (~1 in 67 packs)Bonus-slot upgrade = 1.50%
Hyper Rare (HR)0.70% (~1 in 144 packs)Bonus-slot upgrade = 0.70%

Validation targets: community Shrouded Fable pull-rate data, plus the official Shrouded Fable card list for premium numbering ranges, ACE SPEC cards, and card names.

Included pools
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.
Counts — Main (NF)
Counts — Rare slot
Counts — Reverse / Premium
Counts — Bonus slot
Sanity

Selling Fees

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Example: 0.25 removes any card valued under $0.25 from EV only if the toggle is on. Sift is applied after each pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV × 9 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — active pools & Sift 0.00
Preparing…
Boxes / copy = 1 ÷ expected copies per box (9 × per‑pack probability). EV uses Sift only when Use Sift (≥) is checked; row tinting always uses the numeric Sift value.